FT Explains editor John Reed reviews the five main predictions pundits have made about how the US and Israel’s war with Iran could end.
Scenario 1: US President Donald Trump declares victory
Trump’s war aims have varied from disabling Iran’s military capacity to securing the Islamist regime’s unconditional surrender.
Whether he achieves those aims or not, US midterm elections are due this year and the longer the war goes on, the more domestic pressure Trump will face, analysts say.
Trump recently said the war was “pretty well complete”, prompting many to speculate that he might seek a quick exit or, as his critics put it, chicken out.
Scenario 2: the Venezuela option
After putting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on to a US-bound plane in January, Trump made an ally of Delcy Rodríguez, his deputy. The Venezuelan regime stayed intact, but with a new woman in charge.
However, analysts say this war is nothing like the lightning US operation in Caracas. It’s dragging on, and the Iranians are fighting back.
The slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s hardline son Mojtaba is now in charge, and there’s no Iranian Delcy in sight.
Scenario 3: Iran agrees to a ceasefire with the US
Iran might, in theory, agree to a ceasefire with the US, but it’s showing no signs of looking for one. Analysts say Trump’s war demands cross multiple regime red lines, so the hardliners might want to hold out.
Scenario 4: Iran’s regime survives
The incumbent regime could continue, weakened but claiming victory after fighting the world’s most powerful military.
What remains could emerge with less of an ideological bent than its predecessor, but the lack of civilian pressure, like the protests Iran saw in January, means there is little incentive for the regime to change.
Scenario 5: a longer Middle East war— but not in Iran
A war in the wider region looks possible, and Israeli officials say they may keep fighting the Lebanon-based pro-Iranian group Hizbollah, even if operations against Iran end.
As for America’s continued involvement, Trump’s stated war aims are sweeping and continuously shifting. With Iran’s leaders still standing, the US endgame is a moving target.
